"SUMMARY: PARTY REACTIONS TO JULY 25 AFM ASSEMBLY
DECISIONS HAVE BEEN AS EXPECTED. PCP AND MDP/CDE SUPPORTED DECISIONS; PS AND
PPD CRITICIZED THEM. PS NOTED CONTRADICTION BETWEEN PRESIDENT'S SPEECH TO
ASSEMBLY AND ASSEMBLY'S DECISIONS. PS CALLED UPON PRESIDENT TO BRING TOGETHER
VARIOUS CURRENTS WITHIN AFM AND POLITICAL PARTIES TO FORM "GOVERNMENT OF
NATIONAL SALVATION." PRIME MINISTER VASCO GONCALVES IS EXPECTED TO
ANNOUNCE MEMBERSHIP OF NEW GOVERNMENT FOLLOWING RETURN OF GENERAL OTELO SARAIVA
DE CARVALHO FROM CUBA. SIX MODERATE OFFICERS, WHO REFUSED TO ATTEND JULY 25
ASSEMBLY, HAVE BEEN MAKING THEMSELVES SCARCE. THEY ARE REPORTED AT FRIENDLY
MILITARY UNITS -- WHETHER TO PROTECT THEMSELVES OR TO ORGANIZE OPPOSITION IS
NOT YET CLEAR. PRO-CHURCH DEMONSTRATION WAS HELD JULY 27 IN BRAGANCA WITHOUT
INCIDENT. PS HELD THREE RALLIES OUTSIDE LISBON OVER WEEKEND. PCP OFFICES IN
AGUEDA, ESMORIZ WERE SACKED ON JULY 26. FIVE PERSONS WERE WOUNDED SAME DAY IN
EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE ON MADEIRA. CLASHES ALSO OCCURRED BETWEEN PORTUGUESE AND
MPLA IN ANGOLA.
1. PARTY REACTIONS: OFFICIAL POLITICAL PARTY REACTIONS TO JULY 25
DECISIONS OF AFM GENERAL ASSEMBLY HAVE FALLEN ALONG EXPECTED LINES. PCP AND
MDP/CDE PRAISED THE DECISIONS. PCP CALLED FOR FORMATION OF A "BROAD SOCIAL
FRONT" IN SUPPORT OF REVOLUTION. PS AND PPD, ON OTHER HAND, WERE SHARPLY
CRITICAL. BOTH PARTIES ARGUED THAT CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN TRIUMVIRATE WAS
VIOLATION OF PACT BETWEEN PARTIES AND AFM AS WELL AS BEING A USURPATION OF THE
FUNCTIONS OF THE REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL. SOCIALIST STATEMENT STRESSED THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN WORDS OF PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES IN HIS SPEECH TO AFM
ASSEMBLY AND THE ASSEMBLY'S SUBSEQUENT DECISIONS. PS STATEMENT CON- CLUDED BY
CALLING UPON PRESIDENT, AS ONLY MAN WITH REQUISITE AUTHORITY AND PRESTIGE, TO
BRING TOGETHER THE VARIOUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE AFM AND THE POLITICAL PARTIES TO
CONSTRUCT A "GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL SALVATION."
2. NEW GOVERNMENT: PRIME MINISTER VASCO GONCALVES IS EXPECTED TO
ANNOUNCE THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE FIFTH PROVISION GOVERNMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE FORMAL ANNOUNCEMENT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MADE UNTIL GENERAL OTELO
SARAIVA DE CARVALHO'S RETURN FROM CUBA, NOW EXPECTED JULY 29. STRUCTURE UNDER
TRIUMVIRATE WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE TWO VICE PRIME MINISTERS -- GENERAL CARVALHO,
SERVING IN DUAL CAPACITY, AND PROF. TEIXEIRO RIBEIRO -- AND MINISTERS AND
SECRETARIES OF STATE CONSISTING OF INCUMBENTS AND LEFTIST "NON-PARTY
TECHNICIANS."
3. DEMONSTRATIONS AND VIOLENCE: THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE TURNED OUT JULY 27
FOR DEMONSTRATION IN BRAGANCA IN SUPPORT OF BISHOP AND CHURCH HIERARCHY (LISBON
4182). CHURCH SOURCES STATE THAT, IN ADDITION TO PRO-CHURCH BANNERS, ANTI-AFM
AND ANTI-COPCON SIGNS WERE ALSO IN EVIDENCE. NO INCIDENTS OCCURRED AND LOCAL
MILITARY AUTHORITIES MADE NO ATTEMPT TO INTERFERE WITH DEMONSTRATORS.
4. SOCIALISTS HELD THREE RALLIES OVER WEEKEND -- IN FIGUEIRA DA FOZ AND
VISEU, NORTH OF LISBON; AND SAO JOAO DA MADEIRA. LARGEST OF THREE, IN FIGUEIRA
DA FOZ, WAS ATTENDED BY PS LEADER SOARES. SOARES CALLED FOR PAUSE IN TENSIONS
TO ALLOW PRINCIPAL PROTAGONIST TO SIT DOWN TOGETHER TO ATTEMPT TO WORK OUT A
REALISTIC PLAN TO SAVE THE REVOLUTION.
5. INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE WERE REPORTED IN AGUEDA, ESMORIZ, AND FUNCHAL.
-- IN AGUEDA AND ESMORIZ LOCAL PCP OFFICES WERE SACKED ON JULY 26 AND PCP
MATERIALS THROWN INTO THE STREET AND BURNED. -- IN FUNCHAL, ON THE ISLAND OF
MADEIRA, FIVE PERSONS WERE REPORTEDLY WOUNDED IN AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE BETWEEN
UNNAMED CIVILIANS AND MILITARY PERSONNEL OUTSIDE HOUSES OCCUPIED BY
"PROGRESSIVE FORCES." RIVAL DEMONSTRATIONS SPONSORED RESPECTIVELY BY
PPD AND UPM TOOK PLACE WITHOUT INCIDENT.
6. CLASH IN ANGOLA: PORTUGUESE MILITARY UNITS ON JULY 26 CONDUCTED A
PUNATIVE RAID ON MPLA OUTPOST IN VILA ALICE. CASUALTY TOLL: 14 DEAD, 22
WOUNDED. PORTUGUESE ACTION CAME IN RETALIATION FOR INCIDENT PREVIOUS DAY IN
WHICH MPLA TROOPS DISARMED PORTUGUESE PATROL, ORDERED IT FROM AREA, AND THEN
OPENED FIRE ON DEPARTING SOLDIERS.
7. COMMENT: HOW NEW TRIUMVIRATE WILL WORK IS STILL FAR FROM CLEAR. ONE
CLUE WILL BE THE FASHION IN WHICH THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS FORMED. WILL OTELO HAVE
A HAND IN THE SELECTION OF MINISTERS? OR WOULD HE PREFER TO STAND ASIDE, EITHER
BECAUSE THE TASK IS SO DIFFICULT OR BECAUSE HE DOES NOT WISH TO ASSOCIATE
HIMSELF TOO CLOSELY WITH A GOVERNMENT THAT IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO FAIL? SIX
MODERATE OFFICERS WHO REFUSED TO ATTEND JULY 25 ASSEMBLY HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEMSELVES SCARCE. ONE SOURCE SAYS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN VISITING FRIENDLY
MILITARY UNITS -- WHETHER TO ORGANIZE THE OPPOSITION OR TO PROTECT THEMSELVES
FROM ARREST IS NOT YET CLEAR.
CARLUCCI
CONFIDENTIAL"